Nikolai Chebykin and the Importance of Strong Support Systems
"Therapy sessions, I'm in the waiting room, readin' Forbes... Abandonment issues, I'm gettin' treated for." - Aubrey "Drizzy Drake" Graham
About two years ago, I started a Substack post titled, and I quote: “WTF is up with Nikolai Chebykin?”
At the time, I was less than a year removed from writing him off completely as a prospect, believing that he wouldn’t even become a KHL depth forward. Yet, he had just put up 6 goals in 7 games in the Kontinental Hockey League, the 2nd best league in the world.
I start and abandon many, many post ideas, though. This was one of them. Let’s start this one more time, though.
A close look at Dynamo Moskva’s Elite Prospects page will show you that only two players drafted from their system played in the NHL last season: Alexander Ovechkin and Klim Kostin, both players who immediately departed for North America as soon as it was possible.
Their neighbours down the street (9 minutes down the road, to be precise) have the same amount of NHLers drafted from their program: Nikita Kucherov and Alexander Romanov (noteworthy, perhaps, is that both took their time to leave the system). Additionally, CSKA Moscow facilitated the development of draftees like Ilya Sorokin and Kirill Kaprizov, also setting the stage for late bloomers such as Andrey Kuzmenko and Nikita Zaitsev to be signed to the NHL (not to mention being the destination of choice for Valeri Nichushkin and Egor Afanasyev, who chose this organization when returning to Russia and have since come back to play in the NHL).
Is it even fair to mention the powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg, whose 22 alumni in the NHL last year blew everyone else out of the water?
All of this is to say, that not all Russian organizations are created equal. It’s not even close. This year, I edited Recruit Scouting’s NHL Draft Guide, and I was shocked to see how many times our Head of European Scouting mentioned the quality of the system for many of the Russian prospects. After seeing the numbers, though, it’s clear that many of these systems just aren’t equipped to take players to the big leagues.
These days, the MHL makes this easier for us to see. The MHL is divided into two conferences — East and West. The top 9 teams in each conference from the previous year are in the Gold division and the bottom 10 are in the Silver division. The top 8 out of 9 Gold teams make the playoffs, as do the top 3 of 10 Silver teams. The worst 2 Silver teams are demoted to the NMHL and the top 2 NMHL teams are promoted to the MHL Silver Division. The teams play most of their games within their division, with some inter-divisional play.
The truth is, most of the Gold teams stay in the Gold division, and most of the Silver teams… suck. Many of these teams are new, lack resources, and/or are simply not affiliated with top KHL teams like their Gold counterparts are. In fact, many of the Silver teams struggle to develop KHLers, forget NHLers.
This is a bad chart. Some players are double-counted, as they played on multiple MHL teams. Some players barely played on their MHL team. For example, the Silver Division’s Russkie Vityazi got a combined 15 games from Artemi Panarin and Pyotr Kochetkov, and yet that adds two tallies for the Silver teams.
Hey, I’m many things… a data scientist is not one of them. Yet, this chart showcases my point quite well. 12/19 Silver teams did not have a single alumnus in the NHL last season, and 33% of the Silver Division’s NHL fruits came from one team — Kuznetskie Medvedi, who haven’t produced an NHLer since their main club got relegated seven seasons ago.
Here’s another (very flawed) chart based on a league I am more familiar with.
Ignore the number of NHLers (as there are many reasons why the OHL will have a higher quantity of NHLers than the Russian Jrs, for the same reasons why the MHL has more KHLers than the OHL). Instead, focus on the disparity. The OHL has many issues. The IceDogs are embarrassing, whereas the London Knights are powerhouses year after year. The Knights were home to a whopping 38 NHLers (represented in the Top 10 slice), whereas a team like the Flint Firebirds — who became infamous due to meddling ex-owner Rolf Nilsen — only contributed 5 to the 23/24 bottom-tier teams.
Yet, the disparity overall is much, MUCH less prominent than that of the MHL, signalling that the league is generally fairly equal when it comes to producing NHL talent. Any outliers in the OHL come from obvious, well-reported reasons, and it is much easier to get a promising OHLer out of a tricky situation.
Right, back to our guy. I was 11 years old when Nikolai Chebykin was drafted. I had no idea who he was, nor did I care. My hometown Toronto Maple Leafs had just drafted Auston Matthews after stunting my childhood development with years of putrid hockey, and despite the fact that they overlooked one of my favourite prospects (a 2x 50-goal scorer out of Erie), I was ecstatic.
Looking back, I don’t think it’s crazy to say that Nikolai Chebykin is your favourite prospect that you’ve never heard of.
Let’s travel back to 2016. It is not insane to say that the Leafs’ 2016 NHL Draft Class will go down as one of the biggest whiffs in Leafs’ history, perhaps only second to their 2015 selections. 10/11 players are listed as 6’ and above, 5 of which are 6’4 and above. All things considered, having two selections (Auston Matthews, Joseph Woll) become impactful NHLers is a very good result, but this should have been a draft class that built the Leafs’ supporting cast that is currently extremely shaky.
Egor Korshkov was a double-overager who left for Russia after one NHL game, whose selection over 40-goal man Alex DeBrincat and 70-point forward Jordan Kyrou still stings to this day.
J.D. Greenway’s hockey sense never caught up to his promising tools and 6’6 frame, and he has apparently moved from defense to forward in an attempt to become more versatile at the ECHL level.
The hard-hitting defenseman Keaton Middleton never found his offensive touch but has played a steady depth role in the AHL, never with the Leafs organization.
Overager Vladimir Bobylev is fighting to keep afloat in the Russian 2nd-tier league.
Double-overager Jack Walker has made stops in Denmark, Hungary, Poland, and France as he keeps his pro career alive in Europe.
Memorial Cup Champion Nicolas Mattinen has clawed his way back from being unsigned by the Leafs, playing for the University of Ottawa, and playing in Austria. He has signed his first NHL deal with the team that let him go in the first place after a spectacular year in Germany, but perhaps that’s a story for another time, as he still has 0 NHL games played.
5’10 double-overager Adam Brooks was a fine NHL depth forward and 6’ Carl Grundstrom is a full-time bottom-6 NHLer who was sent away in a deal for Jake Muzzin.
This post is about none of those guys. In the 7th round, with their final pick of a franchise-altering draft, the Leafs dip into the Russian Junior League and pick HK MVD Balashikha’s leading scorer — an overager from Chita, Russia, and the subject of this whole post.
And no one cared! Justifiably so, as no one really expects anything from the 11th out of 11 draft picks from the Leafs’ last year as a struggling team.
“Chebykin may be more of a project than other players selected by the Maple Leafs in this draft, especially if they can get him over and into their system.” - via Pension Plan Puppets, 2016
Yeah, no one really knew, nor did they care. Chebykin was the only player from that team to be drafted in 2016. It was fairly clear that it wasn’t his production alone that stood out, as 5’10 Alexander Petunin, of a similar age, scored at a similar rate, and was not in draft consideration.
I promise there’s a scouting report somewhere in this post, just bear with me for story-telling purposes.
Whatever the Leafs saw that year, in 2016-17, close observers would say that it was starting to pay off. Chebykin tore up the MHL, with his 17 goals in 17 games setting a pace only rivalled by current NHLer Andrey Kuzmenko (who, to be fair, was already having success in the pros, and his 3 goals in 3 games are not a huge sample size). Chebykin earned professional looks at the VHL and KHL levels, his 5 goals in 24 games were good for 8th among U20 skaters in the VHL (a stat that means nothing for NHL success but is still notable).
Here’s what we saw (yes, I watched footage of a 7th rounder from 2016. Yes, everything’s fine at home):
Nikolai Chebykin is a big, strong winger with a shot to be feared. He carries a strong, but heavy stride, that will need work to get to the NHL level. Still, his offensive tools, although only seen at the MHL level at this point, are extremely noteworthy for his size.
From what I can tell with more recent viewings from his time in the KHL/VHL, Chebykin remains a toolsy, big winger who isn’t afraid to get physical. His temperament has gotten cooler over the last few years (as he used to frequently cross the line and put his team on the PK) but he’s not afraid to fight for the puck and grind for plays. I see why many VHL teams wanted to typecast him in a 3rd-line grinder role.
Here are two clips from the season that earned Chebykin a selection from the Leafs In 2016, credits to the now-dormant Youtube channel TriggerImage.
Here, Chebykin uses his heavy, strong stride along with his pure strength to create separation, letting his hands do the work to get through his defenders, and ultimately relying on pure will to finish. This, of course, is not sustainable at the professional level but showcases tools that could make for a special power forward.
Below are two more clips from his 2016-17 season, credits to the now-dormant Leafs Prospect Vidyas.
As his successful season came to a close, even better news had come for Chebykin’s place in the Leafs organization. Out of 57 players invited to the Leafs Development Camp in 2017, only Chebykin was coming directly from the Russian leagues (Vladimir Bobylyov played in the KHL the year before but returned to the Victoria Royals of the WHL before the new year began).
Previously, Chebykin (along with #31 pick Yegor Korshkov) had skipped the development camp due to obligations with their KHL clubs. So what was Chebykin doing here?
The year is 2010. HC Dynamo Moskva is one of Russia’s most decorated and historic hockey clubs, with 5 Soviet League championships and 2 Russian Superleague championships. They have produced NHLers such as the legendary Alexander Ovechkin. They were once affiliated with the KGB in their early days, earning them the nickname of “The Cops.” At this point in time, stars such as the aforementioned Ovechkin, along with Andrei Markov, and Maxim Afinogenov were practicing with the club before their NHL seasons began.
Oh, and they’re in a lot of debt. So much debt, that one of Russia’s most prominent teams is at risk of disappearing.
HC MVD Balashikha saw an opportunity to rescue the Dynamo brand, and thus, the suburban club that was once Dynamo’s farm team had become the owners, and many of the executives came from the team in Balashikha.
Or something like that. I’m actually not too sure. There was a lot of murkiness surrounding this merger. While everyone was just glad that Dynamo didn’t implode, there were many disagreements in the process. Firstly, it seemed as if the groups disagreed on whether or not the famous Dynamo Moscow would even play in Moscow, or if the brand would just resume in the suburb of Balashikha. Secondly, while the teams came together in 2010, there seems to be some disagreement on what this merger actually entailed, and who was driving the boat. Thirdly, I’m not sure how the organization of Dynamo Moscow even survived this. It wasn’t just the hockey club with issues — the basketball team was kicked out of Russia’s top flight just a year later due to financial reasons, with the commissioner making clear that the league was not a “charity.”
In 2012, life became even sweeter for Dynamo Moscow. Sponsorship from Russia’s 2nd largest bank VTB, along with involvement from childhood friend of Vladimir Putin and multi-billionaire Arkady Rotenberg ensured that Dynamo Moscow (especially its football/soccer club) could spend to the max.
They won the KHL championship — the Gagarin Cup — in 2012 and 2013, and were the top regular season team in 2014. During these years, a young Nikolai Chebykin moves an 81-hour drive from the Siberian city of Chita to the Russian capital of Moscow to further his hockey career. He comes up through the Dynamo Moscow youth system, and in 2016-17, it looks like he’s not far from a full-time look with the big team, as he earned an 8-game look in the KHL at 19/20 years of age. Sure, he was stapled to the bench for most of it (recording 8 seconds of ice time at one point), but it was clear that they wanted him to spend time with the big club.
It is 2017. Ironically, “The Cops” are raided by the actual Russian police. It is at this point where I must admit that I have no idea what is going on and that this is not an educational article by any means (unless you want to know more about Chebykin’s career, then keep scrolling. Sorry!). There are a lot of different explanations for what’s going on, so I will separate them.
The aforementioned Arakdy Rotenberg (and supposedly his brother Boris, another billionaire friend of Putin’s) left Dynamo in 2015, but…
Maybe Arakdy doesn’t actually leave until 2020 and only does so due to sanctions from the war, but Boris definitely cut ties with Dynamo in 2015, stepping down as president of the football side.
Does Arakdy actually leave in 2020? Or was Dynamo one of the assets that he sold his son to avoid sanctions?
Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, head of the club’s sports society, announces that the club has racked up debts of around $35 million USD.
Officially, the club’s offices are raided, and financial documents are seized due to allegations that a club employee was embezzling money from the team.
This whole debacle is pinned on CEO/GM Andrei Safronov, who was also the GM of Russia’s National Team. Safronov, along with the rest of the board, filed for bankruptcy to avoid having to pay this debt. Safronov is doing fine. He hasn’t managed a team since, but his son plays AAA in Toronto.
But wait! Was it even Safronov’s fault? A group of Dynamo alumni alleged that the sporting society that runs Dynamo was actually trying to force out Safronov and his surrounding executives. Remember how I said that Dynamo merged with HC MVD and took on its staff? Safronov was the GM of that team, and his role carried over to the new Dynamo club.
Everything that the veterans alleged ended up being followed to a tee. Sponsorship money was withheld, which explained why the team was faltering financially despite the supposed support of VTB Bank.
Just as the letter said, the sporting society cut out the executives from HC MVD and created a new organization under the same brand. This way, they would not be responsible for the debts supposedly incurred by Safronov’s hockey club, nor would they have to deal with the power struggle anymore.
Whatever happened, the maneuvers and proceeding ruling that the new club was not responsible for the debt and that the old club was bankrupt, infuriated the players, who were owed at least a third of the debt (so, over USD $10 million owed).
42 players were initially declared free agents, but those were only the players who filed official appeals in court were included in this number. Every contract signed by the old Dynamo could not be honoured by the new team. Many of the players left.
It is not immediately clear whose decision it was not to retain Chebykin, but it sounds like he was a favourite of the HC MVD staff, not an immediate priority for the new Dynamo Moskva.
Chebykin impressed at Leafs development camp. He remained on the Leafs’ radar, but they sent him back to Russia in hopes that he would win over a role in the KHL.
Heading into the camp, Chebykin refused to comment on Dynamo’s situation, but added that he would be:
“ready to stay [in North America], depending on the offer, especially if I will get one.”
He went back home without an offer in hand. A week later, the Russian court ruled that he was now a free agent.
Within a week, Chebykin signed a two-way deal with the powerhouses SKA St. Petersburg. Many following the league criticized this signing, saying that SKA was being too greedy and had signed too many players, with one Russian commenter insinuating that they would need 3-digit jersey numbers just to track all of their players. Many felt that Chebykin was better suited to sign with a mid-level team and get more minutes.
They were right. Chebykin quietly terminated his deal after 5 games with SKA — 2 with their top MHL team and 3 with their VHL team. Chebykin was a VHLer, but SKA had too many in their system and had demoted him to the junior leagues.
“My leave was a long and sad story,” Chebykin explained. “The coaches simply decided that I was worse than other players, and that was all. I wasn’t ready to play for them in the role they wanted to see me in.” - Chebykin to Maple Leafs Hot Stove in 2018.
So he goes down the street and signs with some old pals. Dynamo Moscow’s VHL affiliate in St. Petersburg was left unscathed by any scandal. While their team in Balashikha had met its demise, Dynamo’s St. Petersburg division was thriving. At 20, Nikolai Chebykin was the youngest full-time forward on the team. He proceeded to put up the 8th most points among all U21 VHLers, and the most playoff points among all U21 VHLers, en route to Dynamo St. Petersburg’s VHL championship (won against the team that demoted Chebykin in the same season). His playoff effort remains the 7th most points a U21 skater has scored since the VHL’s inception in 2010. Once again, this is not a stat that means anything as far as NHL projectability goes, but I am impressed nonetheless.
Less than a week after the victory, Chebykin is moved to Salavat Ufa in exchange for Maxim Dzhioshvili (a homegrown product who they had moved just half a season prior. He graduated from the VHL and is now a mainstay for Dynamo in the KHL).
Dynamo St. Petersburg hasn’t won a championship since and was eliminated the next year by Chebykin’s new team, Toros Neftekamsk.
Chebykin was invited to Leafs Development Camp once again, along with another player in Dynamo’s system. Pavel Rotenberg, son of the aforementioned Dynamo Moskva owner/childhood friend of Vladimir Putin/billionaire Arkady Rotenberg, comes along for the trip, despite unimpressive numbers in the MHL. In his defense, he was projected to be a top-100 prospect by some before the season began.
Chebykin goes unnoticed at camp, the first of which that would be helmed by new GM Kyle Dubas, who focuses more on off-ice elements such as nutrition, and less on scrimmages. The only highlight I can find from his performance is a whiff on a retrieval while pressured by Riley Stotts, followed by a giveaway from teammate Sean Durzi, which led to a goal by Eric Cooley.
The Leafs never call him again. Weirdly, they end up re-inviting the billionaire’s son, Pavel Rotenberg, who struggled in his stint in the NAHL (he had specifically requested to play in North America that year), struggled in the VHL and struggled again in the MHL.
Understandably, Nikolai Chebykin comes off as a little salty in an interview from just last year with Sports.ru.
“I don't think anyone remembers me there [Toronto]. […] If I went to the rookie camp twice while having a contract in Russia, it doesn’t mean that I had a goal to go there.
And basically, no one invited me there. Only at first, after the draft, there was some interest. And now I don’t know – no one has contacted me. I need to ask my agent – maybe they talked to him.” - Nikolai Chebykin, translated from an interview with Sports.ru
It is at this point that I should admit that this is the end of the line for anything Leafs-related in Nikolai Chebykin’s career. I am very sorry if you were expecting a road to the NHL from here. Instead, we’re just starting Year 3, Team 7, of an 8-year stretch that saw Chebykin suit up for 15 different Russian teams.
Chebykin’s 2018 trade to Salavat Yulaev Ufa is what I would consider the nail in the coffin for any chance of an NHL dream for Chebykin. While he signed a two-way deal, it was clear that Ufa saw the 21-year-old as a VHL option. The goal wasn’t to make it to the NHL anymore — Chebykin needed to prove that he could force his way into Ufa’s KHL lineup that year.
He didn’t. He finished 11th in scoring on Toros Neftekamsk. Sure, he was one of the youngest players in the team’s everyday lineup. The fact of the matter, though, was that his production was stalling. To his credit, a late-season resurgence earned Chebykin a 3-game stint in the big leagues, but he didn’t show anything to prove he could stick. None of the 10 players who outscored him on Toros that year graduated to play a full KHL season (to be fair, I think Gleb Kuzmin — of the same age — will make it happen with Ufa next season).
He was one of 19 forwards who went to Finland for training camp with Ufa in 2019. He didn’t make the team. Still, he and Vladimir Bobylyov (fellow Leafs prospect) were carving out top-6 roles on a low-scoring Toros team that year.
Meanwhile, in Chelyabinsk, Traktor was on a skid, and they were having trouble with the talented, but inconsistent KHL forward Alexei Kruchinin. Ufa bit, buying low on the winger. Unfortunately, they didn’t realize that Kruchinin would continue to dip in performance, scoring just 1 goal with Ufa, and spending almost an entire year in the VHL before clawing back and breaking out at the age of 31 with another team.
Ufa moved both Chebykin and the aforementioned Bobylyov in the trade, a seemingly low price to pay, as neither could break into Ufa’s lineup. Still, Traktor had acquired two prospects that were young enough to make it to the big leagues. After all, Chebykin was just 22.
Then, Chebykin put up what can only be described as WhereIsMalgin Beer League numbers. 1 point in 13 VHL games, generally speaking, is game over. Still, Chebykin got a late-season look in the big leagues, with Traktor giving him 2 games. And, still, Chebykin didn’t impress. It had been four seasons since his first and only KHL goal with the old Dynamo Moskva, but the longer things went, the more likely it was that Chebykin would remain a career VHLer.
In July 2021, Traktor invited Chebykin to their main camp to win a KHL role, despite the results of his last season. He doesn’t. Chebykin plays 4 more games with their VHL affiliate before a familiar friend calls.
It is at this point that we can declare Nikolai Chebykin a VHL journeyman, joining his 6th VHL team in 5 years. Dynamo Krasnogorsk is the third Dynamo VHL affiliate mentioned in this story. Yet, the organizational familiarity doesn’t do Chebykin many favours, as his 12 points in 24 games mark another season proving that Chebykin is nothing but a 3rd-line VHLer with limited KHL aspirations. It is around this point that I watch Chebykin and former teammate/fellow Leafs draftee Vladimir Bobylyov and declare them to be — as a younger me bluntly put it — hopeless. If Chebykin had no bad luck, he’d have no luck left, and he wasn’t playing his way into good fortunes either.
For the first time since their bankruptcy scare/scandal in 2018, Dynamo sees enough value in Chebykin to keep him around. They give him a shot at making the KHL roster once again… and this time, he makes it.
Even crazier, is that he puts up 6 goals in his first 6 games. His goal-per-game pace blew Artemi Panarin’s .46 clip in his final KHL season out of the water. Everyone involved was pretty hyped, with Chebykin earning comparisons to teammate and reigning KHL MVP Vadim Shipachev.
Chebykin, to his credit, remained pretty humble.
“I'm lucky, that's all. There's no secret. I try not to think about it. While I'm lucky, I throw with my eyes closed and it flies in.” - Chebykin to Sports.ru in 2021.
He was right. All six of those goals were pretty lucky. Unfortunately, the hockey gods felt as if this run would do for now.
Chebykin never scored another goal for his childhood team after he went goalless in his next 10 games.
In October, he is traded along with Canucks prospect Dmitry Zlodeyev to rivals Spartak Moscow for Gleb Shashkov and Danil Avershin. The two play a combined 3 scoreless games for Dynamo.
To Dynamo’s credit, perhaps trading a scoreless forward for the 19-year-old Avershin, and then flipping Avershin for the injury-prone sniper Bogdan Yakimov (who scored 5 goals in 19 games for Dynamo before retiring the next season due to back issues) was their idea of selling high on Chebykin, as they recognized his early-season success as a stroke of luck.
Spartak played Chebykin in the KHL, but after 18 games, they decided to demote him to the VHL.
Back at square one, it was not looking good for Chebykin at this point. He signed a two-way, two-year deal with Spartak, seemingly cementing the fact that he was not a lock for the next season’s main team.
Luckily for Chebykin, Admiral Vladivostok was coming off of a putrid 2021-22 campaign. They were the 2nd worst league in the team, and Chebykin’s 8 goals in the KHL that year would have led the team in goals. In other words, they needed all the help that they could get offensively. So, the sniper makes the 116-hour trek across Earth’s largest country to Vladivostok, traded just two months after signing his 2-year deal, in exchange for prospect Egor Chezganov.
In part due to Chebykin’s effort, Admiral finishes 7th in the KHL (up from 23rd the year before), including their first-ever victory at home against Dynamo.
This is Admiral’s best performance in the KHL to this day. Despite being the lowest-paid forward on the roster (being paid what’s currently worth USD 56,898.70), Chebykin was the team’s 2nd best goal-scorer. Admiral made their first 2nd-round appearance despite barely reaching the KHL salary floor. He was rewarded with a two-year, one-way extension.
Unfortunately, Admiral crashed back down to earth last season. Chebykin only mustered 2 goals in 33 games, causing the team from the Far East to cut their losses. Chebykin was shipped 131 hours west, joining the bottom-dwelling HK Sochi in exchange for talented, undersized forwards Dmitri Zavgorodny (Flames prospect) and Kirill Petkov.
That brings us to 2024. Anyone watching HK Sochi was only there to watch one player — Matvei Michkov, the generational Russian talent on loan from SKA St. Petersburg. Yet, after Chebykin’s move to Sochi, it was only the future NHLer Michkov who had more points per game. 18 points in 29 KHL games marked Chebykin’s best pace ever. However, with teammates Michkov and the promising Marat Khusnutdinov off to North America, the question remains — Can Nikolai Chebykin replicate this production in a top role? Or is this the rise before the fall, just as his 6 goals in 6 games with Dynamo, or his formidable first season with Admiral?
Here are some clips from his time in Sochi so far:
A goal from Chebykin (#75), as he muscles through and gets a sharp shot off a bad angle.
Chebykin fights for the puck behind the net and gets a well-earned assist.
Chebykin wins a board battle and gets a shot on net for a rebound which is cashed in by his teammate.
Chebykin is earning his living as a hard-working, strong player along the boards, battling and pushing to give his teammates the puck. He’s exactly the type of player you want on your team. He still shows signs of being the skilled power forward he was in junior, but it is clear that his offensive tools have not developed enough to allow him to make space and use these tools.
The question I will ask (and, if you read through all of that, you probably asked as well) is… does it matter?
I mean it in a different way, though. Throughout that career resume, I mentioned that players in his position didn’t even sniff the KHL. Yet, Chebykin has had multiple stints as a top producer for 2nd-tier teams in the KHL. He has earned millions of rubles living his dream at the KHL level despite having no inkling of hope earlier in his career.
If I had to guess… no, I do not believe he will light it up with HK Sochi next year. No, I do not think he has any NHL aspirations. And, no, none of this biography is remotely relevant to the Leafs.
Yet, I find it worth noting that at the age of 26, Chebykin has:
Moved across the country at the age of 9 to play in Moscow
Fell out of favour with his boyhood team due to what ultimately amounted to politics
Signed to the prolific SKA St. Petersburg system, only to be told he wasn’t good enough
Got ghosted by the Leafs when they hired new management
Played in 15 teams in 8 seasons, mostly behind players with little hope of making the KHL
Broke out with his boyhood team on what should’ve been a redemption story, but was dumped AGAIN
Finally broke out despite being his team’s lowest-paid forward, but was dumped again just a year later
Got banished to another low-scoring team and broke out yet again
Has finally established himself as worthy of a one-way contract
This isn’t supposed to be a biography, though. Scratch what I said before, what if this story IS relevant to the Leafs?
In just one year at the age of 19, Nikolai Chebykin went from being a top-rated prospect in a historic KHL team’s system to fighting for his career in other KHL systems. While Chebykin struggled to prove himself in the VHL, former Dynamo teammates such as Klim Kostin and Alexei Toropchenko moved to North America, found consistency, and focused on developing into NHLers.
I am not saying that Nikolai Chebykin would be an NHLer if he had a more stable system. I am saying, however, that it would have helped if he weren’t focused on staying afloat, and instead focused on developing such a unique skill set.
That is not a sign to stop drafting from Russia. What happened in Dynamo was probably an outlier. However, the instability and impracticality of some Russian systems is clear. There is a reason why the heavy hitters such as SKA and CSKA attract so much talent (yes, it’s $$$-related), but they are also significantly more stable organizations with the goal of developing KHL-level talent. Other clubs find it more efficient to sign existing talent — a practical philosophy, but not one that serves well if you’re an NHL team looking to let your draftees develop overseas.
As teams look to maximize the use of their assets, every draft pick counts. While Chebykin can be marked down as a lost cause when it comes to NHL value, perhaps other teams should see the instability of his development path and take note. Sure, there are many reasons why one player will make the NHL over another, but it’s hard not to wonder if Nikolai Chebykin would have at least made the KHL earlier if he had played in a more stable system. Would fellow Dynamo alumnus Alexei Toropchenko be an NHLer if he stayed in Russia instead of moving to Guelph of the OHL?
To their credit, the Leafs have learned this lesson. While Vladislav Kara and Semyon Kizimov did not come over despite being in limbo (in similar situations to Chebykin), they put in the effort to bring the likes of Vyacheslav Peksa and Artur Akhyamov out of a Kazan system that did not produce a goalie product in the NHL last season. I would also say that they will attempt to do the same with Timofei Obvintsev and Alexander Plesovskikh (Obvintsev plays in a solid system, but is playing behind many goaltenders).
When a team like the Calgary Flames takes such a huge swing on Kirill Zarubin out of AKM Tula in the 3rd round, you have to believe they think they can bring him over. AKM Tula produced two KHL products (and 0 NHL products) that played in the league last year. The organization does not present a clear path to the NHL, as they are essentially an extremely loosely affiliated secondary farm team of Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod, for whom they have not produced any products.
Many in the industry have a sink-or-swim ideology when it comes to prospects, and I get it. The best players make it, the rest don’t. When you draft project players, though, you are often not banking on their overall ability, but rather on a unique skill set that would make them stand out in the NHL. By not helping them develop their game, these selections are essentially just Hail Mary passes into the void.
In the case of Nikolai Chebykin, he was thrown into the Pacific Ocean, and despite almost drowning multiple times, he has stayed afloat. In the 7th round, drafting a full-time KHL player is actually a decent outcome. There is no mourning to be done here. Gone are the days when you are finding Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. And, yeah, it would be nice to dig up an Ondrej Palat. Here’s the reality, though. Since 2016 (the year Chebykin was drafted), here are the full-time NHL skaters who have been drafted in the 7th round: Vincent Desharnais, Juuso Parssinen, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, and Valtteri Puustinen. End of list. Out of over 200 selections.
Yes, this is a 6000-word article. I often get told that I need to stop crying when I discuss prospects of this status… which is fair. Still, that’s not my point.
I’m sure there’s a commentary about Nature vs Nurture in NHL prospects to be discussed… but I am coming off of a C- in PSYC 100. Instead, I am extremely curious to see what NHL teams make of the inconsistency of development systems in Russia, and, more specifically, if they could turn this inefficiency into a gold mine in the future by recognizing these situations.
Thank you for reading all of that. Seriously. Yes, I said this in my last post too, but I’m writing it out again. I don’t get paid for writing anymore (and I used all my money from writing before on William Nylander jerseys. So worth it). Instead, I do this for fun to connect with people with the same nerdy interests as I do. I would really appreciate feedback, as the development of my writing is crucial for whatever I end up doing in school. I get nothing from begging you to click on my links — other than maybe stroking my ego if you like my writing. Sure, I spend my time writing nonsense, but YOU took your time to read it, which is infinitely more impressive. Thank you.