The "Growler Model" - Viewing the ECHL as an NHL Development Tool

Analyzing the Newfoundland Growlers’ short history to determine the efficacy of a 3-tier system in hockey.

In 2019, it looked like Kyle Dubas hit a home run. Ever since he became an NHL GM, he took a keen interest in utilizing the ECHL as a development tool. He was closely involved with the Orlando Solar Bears, and in 2018, his Toronto Maple Leafs began an affiliation with the Newfoundland Growlers that gave the NHL team complete control over how the team was run. The result? Those Growlers won the Kelly Cup in their inaugural season, with owner Dean MacDonald describing what Dubas had presented to him as the “Growler Model.”

5 years later, things are… different. Dubas was fired in 2023, Dean MacDonald is widely regarded as a laughing stock in the sports world, and the Newfoundland Growlers are no more.

Regardless, this project from Dubas’ time in Toronto leaves us with plenty of data to analyze regarding the efficacy of the ECHL in terms of player development. The model was simple, but more common in baseball through the use of Double-A teams. The Toronto Blue Jays, for example, have seen players such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and many more come up from their AA affiliate in New Hampshire. Logistically, this process is different in baseball, but the idea remains the same. It should be possible to promote young players from the AA level to the major leagues, and this process is cheaper than paying up for marquee players upfront in their prime.

Despite the circumstances that may surround the Growlers’ legacy now, a look at the numbers shows us that the Leafs/Growlers partnership was leagues ahead of their counterparts. Furthermore, we can use this data to understand what does and does not work in the “Growlers” model.

Table of Contents:

• Introduction (You Are Here)

• Newfoundland vs Everybody (Context for the systems analyzed)

• The Numbers (Using data to measure the efficacy of selected systems)

• What Works? (Analyzing the success of different player types in the Leafs’ organizational pipeline) (Skip to here if you don’t care about the data and want pure analysis)

• General Notes on the ECHL

• Closing Thoughts (What takeaways can we make from this and what are the next steps?)

Newfoundland vs Everybody

The Toronto Maple Leafs saw the Growlers differently than most saw their ECHL partners. The league is generally looked down upon by casual onlookers as a wacky league for washed-up players and underwhelming prospects. As far as NHL projections go, the ECHL is largely only relevant for young goalies. 50% of the 12 ECHL alumni who made their NHL debuts last season were goaltenders. Of the 6 skaters, two were former Growlers. 

As a result, many teams simply see their ECHL affiliates as a formality. Carolina and Columbus are set to start the 2024-25 season without an ECHL team at all. Instead, teams use the ECHL as a dumping ground for underperforming AHLers and as an emergency pool for the AHL club, or as a loan club for young goaltenders who cannot yet beat out more experienced netminders on the depth chart.

The Leafs did not create the only 3-Tiered Development System in the NHL. What they did do, though, was invest more time, money, and energy than any other system in hockey.

For this project, I will set some baseline parameters for the tracking of 3-Tier Prospects:

1. Only teams with constant ECHL/NHL affiliations from 2018-19 until 2022-23 (5 years, the Growlers’ tenure in the league minus last year) will be considered. These teams (to my knowledge are): Leafs/Growlers, Lightning/Solar Bears, Sabres/Cyclones, Avalanche/Grizzlies, Penguins/Nailers, Blackhawks/Fuel, Devils/Thunder, Islanders/Railers, Flyers/Royals.

2. Only prospects who started and/or played the majority of their rookie year in the ECHL will be considered. A minimum of 15 ECHL games are required.

3. A 3-Tier rookie is a rookie who played in the ECHL on an AHL contract or later signed an AHL contract (the latter having more of an impact on other organizations, as the Leafs are generous with the AHL deals they give out).

4. Players who were rookies but have since retired are not included (as I use percentages in some metrics and it is not fair to include players who may have ended their careers due to unforeseen circumstances).

   

This is a graph just to illustrate how much more the Leafs invested in AHL-Contracted Prospects in the ECHL compared to their counterparts. Keep in mind that I even made adjustments to include more players from the other teams, even if they didn’t have ECHL rookies sign their deals with their affiliated AHL teams.

Before we start comparing, let’s go through some of these organizations and their ideologies.

You can skip this bit and scroll right down to “The Numbers,” if you don’t care.

Leafs/Marlies/Growlers

NHL Graduates: Bobby McMann, Justin Brazeau, Kristians Rubins, Mac Hollowell, Marc Johnstone

Full-Time Marlies: Bobby McMann, Justin Brazeau, Kristians Rubins, Mac Hollowell, Marc Johnstone, Joey Duszak, Noel Hoefenmayer, Hudson Elynuik, Ryan Chyzowski, Tommy Miller, Colt Conrad, Scott Pooley

NHL Contracted Rookies: Joey Duszak, Mac Hollowell

Leafs Draftees: Mac Hollowell

The Leafs chose to sign at least 6 rookies to AHL deals every year with the idea of loaning them to Newfoundland. These rookies are evenly split between the ECHL and CHL, with the vast majority of CHL players coming from the WHL. Further patterns will be examined later in the article, but they rarely sign ELCs (Entry-Level Contracts) to loan to the ECHL, focusing more on finding diamonds in the rough on AHL deals that do not count towards their 50-player NHL Contract limit. They spend more money on these deals, which gives players more security as they are yearly and not weekly like ECHL deals are. They consistently promoted players to the next level, even though they were known in this space for having a logjam of AHL prospects.

Note: Prospects loaned to the Growlers from Manitoba in their de facto partnership (Issac Johnson, Tyler Boland) are excluded from this system’s statistics.

Lightning/Crunch/Solar Bears

NHL Graduates: None

Full-Time Crunch:  Otto Somppi, Peter Abbandonato, Joe Carroll, Tyson Feist

NHL Contracted Rookies: Odeen Tufto, Bennett MacArthur, Otto Somppi, Alexei Lipanov, Dmitri Semykin, Maxim Cajkovic, Jaydon Dureau, Oleg Sosunov

Lightning Draftees: Otto Somppi, Alexei Lipanov, Dmitri Semykin, Maxim Cajkovic, Jaydon Dureau, Mikhail Shalagin, Oleg Sosunov

Orlando is an easy city to sell foreign prospects on, which is what Tampa Bay has predominantly used its ECHL affiliate for. They have successfully drafted and played prospects such as Mikhail Shalagin, Otto Somppi, Maxim Cajkovic, Dmitri Semykin, Alexei Lipanov, and Oleg Sosunov at young ages, as opposed to risking letting them get stuck between the MHL and VHL. Unfortunately, this experiment has not panned out as planned. While Otto Somppi made it to Syracuse and is seeing respectable production in his home country of Finland, the rest are having trouble making it to leagues that are considered better than the ECHL. The Lightning aren’t afraid to loan NHL-contracted players to Orlando, as seen in Odeen Tufto and Bennett MacArthur, but neither were promoted to the next level. The system attracts marquee AHL signings such as Peter Abbandonato (quite successful in the AHL now, just not with the Crunch) but overall has not produced any fruit for the main team.

Note: I did not include prospects who came over from the Solar Bears’ de facto partnership with the Barracuda.

Sabres/Americans/Cyclones

NHL Graduates: None

Full-Time Americans:  None

NHL Contracted Rookies: None

Sabres Draftees: Vasili Glotov

Seeing the above information would make you think that this era in Cyclones hockey was a disaster. Yet, I’d argue the opposite. From the seasons tracked in this article (2018-2023), the Cyclones finished (league-wide): 1st, 4th, DNP, 13th, 2nd. Sure, they didn’t win a Kelly Cup, but they consistently remained one of the ECHL’s top teams. They also produced Sabres goaltenders Michael Houser, Jonas Johansson, and – most importantly – Sabres starter Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.

In terms of the development of skaters, though, the Cyclones have a shockingly minimal role in promoting players to the next level. It might start from the top. The Americans/Sabres rarely loaned rookies to the Cyclones. The Cyclones preferred building their teams around proven ECHL talent. At one point, they had one-time ECHL MVP Jesse Schultz and former All-Stars Brady Vail, Alex Wideman, and Eric Knodel on the same team. They’ve been very good at identifying which players can break out at the ECHL level, often leading them to smaller forwards who put up monster numbers offensively when given the chance. They have gotten some great hockey out of rookies such as Myles Powell and Pascal Aquin, but during these years, they simply were not focused on moving rookies up to the AHL.

Avalanche/Eagles/Grizzlies

NHL Graduates: None

Full-Time Eagles: Nate Clurman, Peter Tischke

NHL Contracted Rookies: Josh Dickinson, Nate Clurman

Avalanche Draftees: Nate Clurman, Brandon Saigeon 

The Grizzlies have sustained a consistent pipeline of ~3 rookies yearly. This is an example of a team that also takes chances on young players on ECHL deals, and those players go on loan or sign elsewhere. Guys like Cedric Pare, Turner Ottenbreit, and Cameron Wright have all earned full-time AHL roles without playing much at all for the Eagles, and draftees like Brandon Saigeon and Denis Smirnov both signed ECHL-only deals for their rookie seasons (Smirnov was not able to play here due to COVID restrictions, so he is not included). 

9/12 Grizzlies rookies have played AHL games after leaving the organization, which is a very impressive feat. What is not working for Colorado is keeping them in-house. For whatever reason, the Eagles, a perennial playoff team since they moved from the ECHL to the AHL, have not been able to integrate many Grizzlies graduates into their roster. The team does have a success story in Nate Clurman, an Avs 6th round pick who earned an NHL extension and full-time AHL spot with the Eagles before signing an NHL deal in Pittsburgh this summer. I’m not sure if they’ve fully bought into the 3-tier system idea yet, but credit to the Grizzlies for being a good spot for players to work their way up the ranks, even if it isn’t in the system.

Penguins/Penguins/Nailers

NHL Graduates: None

Full-Time WBS Penguins: Jan Drozg, Samuel Houde

NHL Contracted Rookies: Jan Drozg, Jordan Frasca

Penguins Draftees: Jan Drozg

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Wheeling Nailers are entering their 28th season as affiliates, the longest for an NHL/ECHL partnership. The teams are close, not only in proximity but also when it comes to player development. Within this five-year stretch, Wheeling took on many fine bets on younger prospects, but no dice at the NHL level.

Samuel Houde suffered a season-ending injury after a great start to his season with WBS last year. I would keep a close eye on him to see if he can bounce back and become the sole NHLer out of this era of Nailers rookies.

This partnership will become stronger under GM Kyle Dubas, but it is clear that it will take further investment to take it to the next level.

Blackhawks/IceHogs/Fuel

NHL Graduates: None

Full-Time IceHogs: Dylan McLaughlin

NHL Contracted Rookies: None

Blackhawks Draftees: Jake Ryczek

The Chicago Blackhawks and Indy Fuel have been affiliated for all of Indy’s decade-long existence. The way they conduct business, though, is rather unique. Indy tends to get great value out of young professionals, and their leading scorers are generally players who come out of seemingly nowhere to produce. There is less focus on promoting players to the next level, but more on extracting value and giving underlooked players a second chance. As a result, they look quite poor under the metrics I have set, but their goal is simply different.

As far as rookies go, they prefer older NCAA free agents, and the highlight of this era is likely Dylan McLaughlin, who started his rookie year in Indy and worked his way up to a top role in Rockford and later an NHL deal with the St. Louis Blues. Looking even further back, they were also the team that gave Justin Holl a professional opportunity out of college a decade ago. Overall, though, the goal is to win, not to promote these players to Rockford.

Devils/Comets/Thunder

NHL Graduates: None

Full-Time Comet: Xavier Parent

NHL Contracted Rookies: None

Devils Draftees: Nikita Popugayev

The Adirondack Thunder have done a great job of identifying breakout candidates from the SPHL and putting them in a position to succeed. However, there isn’t much going for them in terms of promoting skaters to the AHL level. The Devils are inconsistent in assigning rookies to the team, but the rookies they do assign are generally older NCAA signings equipped to contribute at the ECHL level. Their two most successful rookies have been their youngest. Specifically, the eccentric Nikita Popugayev (who retired to become an influencer a year after leaving Adirondack, but has since become a fine contributor for Lada Togliatti of the KHL) and Xavier Parent.

Parent will likely be the highlight of this class. The 5’8 forward was Utica’s 3rd highest scorer just a season after a standout rookie year in Adirondack. The Thunder did not win a single round during the 5-year period I tracked, but they just had their best finish in years, losing to the eventual champs in Florida in the 3rd round. Maybe having a solid foundation will allow this team to fill their spots with younger players in hopes of taking full advantage of a strong affiliation.

Islanders/Islanders/Railers

NHL Graduates: Arnaud Durandeau

Full-Time AHL Islanders: Arnaud Durandeau, Ryan MacKinnon

NHL Contracted Rookies: Arnaud Durandeau, David Quenneville, Reece Newkirk

Islanders Draftees: Arnaud Durandeau, David Quenneville, Reece Newkirk

Despite the fact that veteran GM Lou Lamoriello is known for his old-school approach and rarely publicly acknowledges his team’s ECHL affiliate, the Islanders are quite actively involved with their team in Worcester. They lean on older NCAA free agents, but their most successful players are generally younger prospects from the CHL. They successfully promoted Islanders draftee Arnaud Durandeau from the ECHL all the way to the NHL when he played 4 games following a standout AHL season.

Flyers/Phantoms/Royals

NHL Graduates: Max Willman

Full-Time Phantoms: Max Willman, Jacob Gaucher, Matthew Strome

NHL Contracted Rookies: Matthew Strome, Mason Millman

Flyers Draftees: Matthew Strome, Mason Millman, David Drake

The Flyers end up boasting the player with the most NHL games played from this pool. Max Willman successfully worked his way from the ECHL in his rookie year to the NHL as a reliable depth forward. They don’t sign a wealth of players, but the successful promotions of Max Willman and Matthew Strome paired with the emerging career of Jacob Gaucher shows that they do have a solid pipeline from the ECHL.

The Numbers

I chose to measure success by a couple of metrics. The most obvious one, of course, is NHLers produced:

The Leafs’ system has produced two full-time NHLers: Bobby McMann and Justin Brazeau. 

Both took wildly different routes, though, and it is quite difficult to quantify this. McMann stayed in the organization, quickly playing himself out of the ECHL and mastering the art of finishing at the AHL level with the Marlies. He took a chance with the Leafs and ran with it, becoming a dark-horse depth option and earning himself an extension. Brazeau was a high-profile signing who reportedly made 6 figures on an AHL deal. The Leafs’ main goal was to improve his skating, and they kept him around the main team for training frequently. He stalled during a weird 2020-21 year, though, and it took a fresh start in Providence for Brazeau to eventually put himself on the NHL Bruins’ 3rd line as a scoring option with size. More on those guys later.

Either way, it means the Leafs have platformed two rookies who eventually earned a full-time spot at the NHL level. Just for fairness sake, though:

McMann and Brazeau were both NHL rookies this past year, so they do not combine for much NHL experience. Additionally, Kristians Rubins, Mac Hollowell, and Marc Johnstone are Growlers graduates who appeared in the NHL but are not full-time NHLers. 

The Islanders got a few NHL games courtesy of Arnaud Durandeau, whose impressive year in Bridgeport earned him games in 2022-23. A slow start to 23-24 saw him shipped out, though, and he is slated to play for Amur Khabarovsk of the KHL this fall. 

The player with the most NHL games played in this group is actually Max Willman. After going unsigned by the Buffalo Sabres (who drafted him 121st overall in 2014), Willman signed an ECHL deal in Reading. He did so well that, within 6 months, he was signed by their AHL affiliate in Lehigh Valley, and he inked his Entry-Level Contract with the big team in Philadelphia just a year later. He played 41 games in 2021-22 on a horrible Flyers team and added 9 more games the next year. Willman signed in New Jersey last offseason and impressed enough in 18 games + his most productive AHL season to date to earn an extension. I think Willman is what he is – a replacement-level forward whose consistent energy and work ethic will always make him a positive addition to struggling teams. He is not projected to be a full-time NHLer this season, but it’s hard not to appreciate his path, and it’s very likely that he’ll be one of New Jersey’s primary call-ups this coming season.

It is important to note that, when evaluating these systems, NHL games aren’t the only measure of success. While the ideal goal is to promote players from the ECHL to the NHL, even the gap between the ECHL and AHL is large enough for the promotion of these players to be a big deal.

By maintaining close connections with their ECHL affiliates, AHL teams should be able to convert rookie signings into future AHL contributors who can provide value to the team for a number of years.

It is in this category that the Newfoundland Growlers blew everyone else out of the water.

No other system comes even close. A whopping 12 Growlers products became full-time Marlies. The next best team (Orlando to Syracuse) had 4. 

With all that laid out, I can finally ask – What worked?

Growlers’ Key To Success?

I did want to find a cheat code. A secret sauce, if you will.

First, I sorted the rookie cohorts by the league they came from.

Yeah, not much. Both the NCAA and the CHL produced NHLers Bobby McMann and Justin Brazeau, respectively. They also both produced a similar number of AHLers. CHL players were more likely to pursue a career abroad than settle in the ECHL, but not at a level that seems drastic enough to build conclusions on.

I even tried sorting by Player Type, but there just isn’t enough data to make any actual assumptions.

(Quick clarification, I found that all of these signings could be sorted into 5 distinct player types:

SF = Skilled Forward, players 6’ and under whose bread and butter is offensive play.

PF = Power Forward, big forwards who are known for their size and offensive ability.

TWF = Two-Way Forwards, not prolific amateur scorers but are great team guys.

OFD = Offensive Defensemen, usually smallish with prolific amateur numbers and defensive deficiency.

DFD = Defensive Defenseman, defenders with minimal offensive talent but are strong in their own end.)

That chart is… useless. There are simply not enough data points to determine something like this.

Then I realized, there is something I can use this categorization for. Instead of trying to determine who’s more likely to make it to a certain level, we can determine which players the Leafs are more likely to have a spot for on their AHL roster.

The team signed 10 players with a similar profile (SF), all of them succeeded in the ECHL, but none were able to carve out a lengthy opportunity with the Marlies, and vice versa, the Marlies failed to extract much value from them.

Despite having only 4 two-way forward signings, they got more games from those players than the skilled forwards (the disparity is further reflected in the mean games played, with TWF GP almost tripling SFs). Some analysis, however, will tell you that while the Marlies did utilize two of these players – Marc Johnstone and Ryan Chyzowski – they almost exclusively did so in a low-scoring, checking role, with little chance of promotion.

It’s the team’s 6 power forwards that blow the other forwards out of the water. Players with the added layer of size were more likely to earn a role on the Marlies. While Keenan Suthers and Brett Budgell failed to earn roles with the team, Justin Brazeau got extended runway during a tough 2021-22 season. Hudson Elynuik and Scott Pooley saw consistent playing time for a couple of years, and Bobby McMann – this program’s crown jewel – saw consistent improvements in his production until he scored 21 goals in 30 games and earned an NHL spot.

The offensive defensemen lead the way in games played, with not one, not two, but 3 AHL All-Stars in Mac Hollowell, Joey Duszak, and Noel Hoefenmayer. The average suffers, as none of Riley McCourt, Michael Joyeux, or Brennan Kapcheck came close to earning consistent Marlies minutes, but more on that later.

The team rarely signs defensive defensemen, but when they do, they get their money’s worth. Kristians Rubins started on an ECHL deal and worked his way up to an NHL opportunity, Tommy Miller is a Marlies blue-line mainstay, and while Sergei Sapego brings the average down, I think his Marlies tenure could’ve gone differently without the pandemic.

Okay, no more of this number nonsense, let’s get to yapping.

The Leafs have the most successful 3-Tier System, but does it matter?

Do I need to go over this? The Leafs’ system blew every other similar system out of the water in every relevant metric.

The question, of course, is: Was it worth it?

The problem is that I have no dollar figures to show you. What I can say is that it’s widely reported that the Leafs are more involved and spend more on their ECHL affiliate than any other organization, to the point where it almost landed them in hot water when they wanted to compensate their ECHL players while the season was cancelled. 

I’m sure the organization has some statistics to keep track of this, but it’s not something that I am capable of offering.

What I can say is that, in today’s NHL, I think some teams are willing to do anything to get an advantage. The cost of actually running the ECHL team would’ve been Dean MacDonald’s area of business, somewhere to the tune of $3 million, to be recouped by the team’s revenue. My estimate is that whatever the Leafs invested into the development of these rookies without a share in the revenue shouldn’t have even touched $1 million. 

The problem that I haven’t been able to solve is developing a metric to determine the surplus value of finding and developing a rookie from the ECHL to the NHL. Specifically, how much do the Leafs gain from having Bobby McMann on a cost-effective deal rather than paying for a player of his calibre in free agency? Is there a surplus value to signing unproven rookies and developing them to the AHL level rather than just signing one of the many young AHL-level throwaways on the market?

It is purely a guess on my part that this comes up positive for the Leafs. It just makes sense. It is a way to supplement your roster in the salary cap era and the Leafs have the advantage of being very wealthy. The cost to operate this system barely makes a dent in their earnings as one of the most valuable teams in sports. I think scoring a touchdown out of 29 extra Hail Mary passes is something the teams that can afford it will take any day.

What Works?

Years of following this organization made it clear, but now these numbers quantify it. I can’t tell you what player will or won’t succeed solely based on their player type and league of origin. What I can confidently tell you is which players the Leafs tend to promote in their own system.

Here’s what we can conclude:

Can Lightning Strike Twice?

Every team wants a Martin St. Louis or Jonathan Marchessault, but it’s easy to forget that those guys were already AHL stars by the time they entered the professional ranks.

In 2013-14, 5’9 forward Yanni Gourde scored his way up from Kalamazoo of the ECHL back to Worcester of the AHL. He never looked back. He went on to become a crucial, homegrown member of the Tampa Bay Lightning teams that went back-to-back. That’s the goal.

But Yanni Gourde isn’t a finesse player. Sure, he’s insanely talented – having scored the lights out at the QMJHL level. His bread and butter, though, comes from being a feisty player who works his butt off every shift.

As far as I can tell, only 3 other players 6 feet tall and under who spent most of a season in the ECHL are projected to play in the NHL this year:

Sam Carrick (6’): Solid defensive depth forward whose work in Anaheim earned him a playoff look after a trade to the Oilers.

Ryan Lomberg (5’9): A feisty 4th liner who isn’t afraid to set the tone, but is more known for PIM than goals, even in Junior.

Justin Danforth (5’9): A talented forward known for his work ethic, made it to the league after putting together all-star seasons in Europe.

Essentially, the message is: “adapt or die.”

Now, I’m not saying that the skilled forwards the Growlers had weren’t working hard enough. But it’s clear that the Leafs weren’t willing to waste more time than needed on this subsection of players. All of them lit up the ECHL, most of them got a look in the AHL, very few of them got a long look at the AHL level, and none of them stuck.

There are a couple of reasons for this.

1. Lack of production in the AHL: Some guys just can’t elevate their offensive game to the AHL level, a much faster game with generally more refined play. The Leafs were particularly very impatient about this. Giorgio Estephan was one of the more talented ECHL players that I’ve watched, and the Leafs weren’t afraid to cut him loose after he had 3 points in 11 AHL games.

2. Extra dimension: Being skilled isn’t enough. The Marlies will give a player extra time if he can prove he’ll put his balls to the wall on every shift. Specifically, Jeremy McKenna*, Colt Conrad, Gordie Green, and Orrin Centazzo all got extended looks despite trouble producing at the AHL level. All of these players added an extra layer. They weren’t just skilled, despite much offensive success at the AHL level. All four of these players (as far as I remember) were Energizer Bunnies, always bringing energy wherever they were deployed.

*I was convinced McKenna would make it after a very solid rookie year, but this bit here refers to his performances in his second year with the team.

I’m sure looking at the data will tell you that the Leafs are wasting resources on this style of player. I’d still argue the opposite. Finding a player that hits from this category is less likely, due to issues with size, reliance on offensive ability that isn’t translatable to higher levels, or deficiencies in other areas that are exacerbated by the aforementioned lack of size. However, I would argue that finding an offensively capable contributor at a low cost – The Lightning acquired Yanni Gourde for free and only paid him $1 million when he scored 64 points in 2017-18 – is so valuable that I would not be afraid to take shots as long as the Marlies are willing to give these players a proper shot on the AHL team. Otherwise, these players are pretty much guaranteed to be high-level ECHL contributors while they’re with the team.

The note that I’ll conclude this section with is that I highly doubt there can ever be a finesse player to make it up from this level, but I want to do more research to determine why. I think the dimension of feistiness is necessary to contribute to an NHL team from this level and it probably aids a lot with overcoming this adversity in the first place. Even some of the most talented players in hockey can’t finesse their way to a lengthy NHL career (Josh Ho-Sang, Rob Schremp) and the guys who do immediately proved their worth in the NHL (Johnny Gaudreau) or AHL (Tyler Ennis). There just isn’t much room for a one-dimensional offensive player who isn’t a first-liner, that’s why a guy like Daniel Sprong keeps taking cheap deals to light it up on the 3rd line.

Go Big or Go Home?

By far the most successful group of forwards here are the Power Forwards. Justin Brazeau and Bobby McMann are the only NHLers in this study. The average Marlies games played is notably higher than their peers. It goes deeper than that, though.

Rather than saying these players are simply better, I would instead say that this group gets the most attention from Leafs brass. Perhaps for good reason. Many of these players have tremendous strength and high-level finishing skills but require the close attention of the Leafs’ Player Development staff to catch up to the modern professional game.

Keenan Suthers is the least productive of the group… but he’s 6’8. He was extremely unrefined and still was a top contributor for the Growlers. However, the Leafs worked extremely closely with him to refine his skating and overall agility. He even earned a Leafs Training Camp invite last year. They really wanted him to succeed, but a dip in production last season left his Leafs future in jeopardy after just 6 games played.

Scott Pooley and Hudson Elynuik were strong contributors to the Marlies for a couple of years. Elynuik was supposed to be more than that, potentially following in the footsteps of his father, former NHLer Pat. Elynuik had plenty of minutes, but I think he just plateaued, which is fine. He had some solid seasons as a middle-6 AHL forward (switching from centre to the wing) after leaving Toronto, and is currently in his 1st year with Kunlun Red Star of the KHL.

That brings us to the big two. There’s the one that got away and there’s the Crown Jewel.

It is this author’s belief that, without the COVID-19 pandemic, Justin Brazeau’s time in Toronto could have gone a lot differently. It sounds like that is Brazeau’s belief as well. I didn’t do his story justice earlier in the post in an effort to keep on track, but here’s what really happened. Excitement brewed when the Leafs signed 6’5 Justin Brazeau following a monster 60-goal season in the OHL. He worked very closely with the Leafs’ staff to improve his skating and conditioning. He did very well in the ECHL, and the Leafs were very clearly taking their time on him before promoting him to the AHL. The COVID pandemic cut things short and forced the Leafs’ hands. 

Brazeau started the 2020-21 season in the AHL. From an outsider’s point of view, the best way I could describe it was that the gears just never started turning. There was an offensive touch at the ECHL level the previous year that he just wasn’t finding at the AHL level, and a loss of confidence was clearly reflected in his on-ice play. Off the ice, Brazeau had to get his accountant mother to help him budget, as his AHL salary of $70,000 had been prorated to ~$35,000. A rocky season with COVID restrictions took Brazeau out of a groove, most clear when Brazeau had to move into a hotel and isolate after roommate Colt Conrad tested positive for the virus. 

Brazeau’s agent, John Walters, practically begged the Leafs to give Brazeau one more year on an AHL deal. The Leafs passed. Brazeau enrolled at the University of Toronto and was ready to call it quits when the Bruins came calling. 3 seasons later, Justin Brazeau was part of the Bruins roster that defeated the Leafs in 7 games.

On the complete opposite end of the spectrum was Bobby McMann. When McMann entered the organization, he came off of a solid career with Colgate University, but nothing super remarkable. He was an all-around forward with size and no notable traits, and the Leafs saw no harm in sending him off to Wichita. McMann impressed there and ended up being one of 48 players to play with the Marlies in their revolving carousel of a 2020-21 season. The next year, McMann finished 5th in scoring after what I confidently labelled a shooting bender. He doubled down, scoring 21 goals in 30 games. It wasn’t a bender. McMann earned an NHL spot the next year and will likely spend much of the year beside 6x NHL All-Star John Tavares.

There are maybe a few conclusions you can draw from those stories, but here’s the one I pick:

The big guys need time. Brazeau took five pro seasons to become a full-time NHLer. McMann took 4, even with the wealth of 4 years of college hockey. Perhaps the model here, the OG Big Man of the 3-Tier System, is Mason Marchment. It was Dubas who brought Marchment onto the Orlando Solar Bears despite his skating deficiencies. It was Dubas that called him up to the AHL, and then the NHL. And then, it was Dubas who let him go too early for an opportunity in Florida, where he later blossomed into one of the NHL’s rare talented giants. Marchment earned a full-time gig in his 5th full year of professional hockey. The Leafs kept these rookies in their system for an average of 2.27 years. 

I’m not being sly when I say I genuinely wonder if Kyle Dubas and then-Marlies GM Laurence Gilman (both no longer with the organization) would go back and redo that Brazeau decision, or if it were the right decision at the time. I would’ve brought him back (and I have evidence!) but I wasn’t exactly heartbroken about his departure after his performances that year.

Nevertheless, patience with McMann – or rather, McMann making sure he proved there was nothing to wait for – resulted in the Leafs getting a cost-effective top-9 option without paying a premium. 

As much as the NHL is getting quicker and faster, every team would kill for a big guy who can play. These guys are highly coveted and valued, that’s why Tampa Bay threw entire draft classes at Tanner Jeannot and Brandon Hagel, and why Dallas made an $18 million bet on Marchment after his singular breakout year. If you have the resources, why not try to craft this valuable player in-house?

One More Won’t Hurt… Right?

The organization loves offensive defensemen. Maybe that moniker is unfair to apply to some of the defensemen in this category – Mac Hollowell and Riley McCourt were more two-way/transitional. It is extremely fair to apply that to guys like Joey Duszak and Michael Joyeux. All of those guys, though, are undersized defenders who started their professional careers in the ECHL with the Growlers. Only some worked their way up.

Skilled defensemen, unfortunately, have it a little harder than skilled forwards. While skilled forwards can score their way to an AHL shot, it’s a lot harder for skilled defensemen, as there is a limited number of spots that can be given to a defenseman with a liability, whether it’s due to a lack of strength or defensive awareness.

Undersized defensemen Michael Joyeux and Riley McCourt were fine in the ECHL but couldn’t crack the Marlies, so both parties moved on. Brennan Kapcheck – who I was once very high on – failed to find consistency with the Growlers and has moved on.

Noel Hoefenmayer had fine size at 6’, but lacked skating ability and defensive awareness. He did very well in the ECHL, and there was a time when he looked like a diamond in the rough, scoring 25 points in 27 AHL games to start his season, earning an AHL All-Star nod. He had 13 points in 38 games the rest of the way and failed to iron out his defensive deficiencies. The Leafs moved on. 

Mac Hollowell didn’t score his way to the AHL. Instead, he flashed his smooth skating and great mobility combined with smart play and became a Marlies mainstay. In fact, his consistency (combined with a load of Leafs injuries) led him to make his NHL debut. 

It was Joey Duszak who found a way to score his way to the AHL. He lit up the ECHL and continued to light up the AHL before finally facing the aforementioned roadblock. He was probably the Marlies’ best player, but he wouldn’t sniff an NHL shot with the Leafs due to a lack of size and defensive ability. He requested a trade. He wasn’t traded. He left the Marlies right before their last game (leading them to play short). He taunted the bench the next time he scored against the Marlies, and the next thing he saw was 6’2, 218 lbs Kyle Clifford barrelling towards him like an angry gorilla. 

Ben Finkelstein (not a rookie, had a year under his belt) had one of the best ECHL seasons offensively for a defenseman in history and he couldn’t crack the Marlies. Joey Duszak was probably the Marlies' best player at some point and he couldn’t crack the Leafs. I do wonder what the Maple Leafs are looking for from this type of player. Maybe they’re not looking for anything at all and it’s a personnel decision to benefit the individual AHL and ECHL teams.

I don’t think there’s much loss to acquiring these players, though. Duszak came from arguably the lowest NCAA D1 division and now he’s probably hitting 6 figures in Russia. Hoefenmayer progressed far enough to the point that he’s a legitimate depth option for the Edmonton Oilers. I just wouldn’t fault this group of players for being frustrated and I wonder what the Leafs’ framework for identifying what players can take the next step from this group looks like. 

All of the players who did well in this group were, compared to the others, marquee signings. Was there ever any plan for a player like Michael Joyeux to progress up the ranks?

The big thing here might be that it is very hard for pure offensive defensemen to progress to the NHL. There are the superstars (Erik Karlsson) and then a very steep dropoff to guys like Shayne Gostisbehere and Erik Gustafsson, who are extremely gifted offensively but are generally only trusted with limited minutes and PP2 time. Everyone slightly below that lands in the TJ Brennan territory, where Joey Duszak was (is?) stuck, as there are few spots for a strong offensive defenseman with limited defensive ability in the NHL. 

This is a very loose category, so I’ll add that there is more room for a guy like Mac Hollowell – an offensively gifted defenseman who had some defensive holes but generally didn’t play like a 4th forward. He was small, but his mobility and overall intelligence made him an NHL depth option despite some occasional defensive lapses. Ideally, this model of player can become a Jared Spurgeon or Torey Krug – who were already so good after their amateur careers ended that they jumped right to the NHL. Even the most gifted defensemen in this group can turn out like Erik Brannstrom, Victor Mete, and Troy Stecher, who are often fighting for opportunities but are still coveted as depth options and are discarded without second thoughts. 

I think the big difference that separates this category and the Power Forward category is that – while there’s a scarcity of big, talented forwards, there’s actually an abundance of skilled defensemen, and the Leafs are fully capable of scooping the best from this group for cheap and developing them into AHL All-Stars. The real question is if it is even possible to mould a skilled defenseman – one who isn’t refined enough to immediately jump to the AHL/NHL levels – into an NHL regular.

The Glue Guys

I’ll always have time for these guys. So will the Leafs organization. On the forwards' side, Derian Plouffe and Matt Bradley were both guys who – at least in my memory – played a more responsible role to start their professional careers and were crucial in the Growlers winning the Kelly Cup in their inaugural season. Marc Johnstone worked his butt off and was beloved in the Marlies locker room. Ryan Chyzowski was a productive player at the junior and in the ECHL, but he was a Marlies regular for a while due to his responsible game as an energy forward in the Marlies’ bottom 6. 

Kristians Rubins’ unique mobility and reach combination took him from the ECHL to the NHL, but his inability to work with the puck capped his ceiling as an NHL depth defenseman. In a similar vein, Tommy Miller has been reliable with the Marlies, and Sergei Sapego has been trusted with consistent minutes on a powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg team, but it is unlikely either merit a full-time role in the NHL.

The numbers match the philosophy here. The defensive-minded players will generally have a higher floor and as a result, more of these guys earn AHL roles than their offense-first peers. The problem, of course, is that their ceiling is extremely limited.

Rubins earned an NHL shot due to his defensive ability, but because he has minimal offensive ability, there just isn’t much room to play him in the modern NHL. To play in this league, you cannot be a liability with the puck on your stick. I think a 7th defenseman is a stellar outcome from an ECHL rookie, but how much surplus value does that add with an influx of players at that level available for cheap? 

These players are still very important for organizational depth and it’s always nice to have someone ready to sign to an ELC who is young and mobile. The peak of this type of player would be Justin Holl, who many readers may scoff at. While he has many lapses at the NHL level, his ability with the puck on his stick combined with his size and reach extended his ceiling to become a full-time NHLer after playing his rookie at the ECHL. I’d say that it never hurts to take a chance on players like this and that the Maple Leafs have done a very good job of identifying which players can contribute to their farm teams while they try to develop more confidence with the puck.

The same is true with the two-way forwards. Yes, it was really cool when Marc Johnstone got his NHL break with the Penguins last season. However, it is clear that the ceiling of this player archetype is extended mostly by a player’s offensive ability. You wouldn’t be able to tell by watching Max Willman (who we profiled much earlier in this piece) in the NHL, but he was actually an offensive force in the ECHL and a very reliable offensive player in the AHL.  Yes, it is his defensive responsibility and overall energy that makes him a premier depth option, but that is only possible because he proved he can hold his own offensively at the AHL level. 

There is a famous quote from Al Arbour, often told in a number of different variations, but it is something along the lines of "I can teach a player to check, I can't teach him to score goals." This was referring to why the Islanders should pick Mike Bossy. The 15th overall pick ended up becoming one of the greatest goalscorers ever.

No, none of the players I’ve mentioned will ever be as good as Mike Bossy. That philosophy is something I agree with, though. Yes, I love players who work their butt off and who hold it down in their own zone, but… in today’s NHL, where every player has to be comfortable with the puck in the fastest league on the planet, it’s a lot easier to teach a skilled player to learn a defensive game than it is to teach a defensive player how to become skilled with the puck. That would explain why the Leafs signed significantly less of these players despite their success relative to their peers.

Notes on the ECHL

Another issue with player progression from the ECHL is the pure randomness of the league. Players with raw skill are favoured more than players who rely on their intelligence. As a result, habits that slide in the ECHL are exploited in the AHL. The same applies to the jump from the AHL to the NHL, which presents the fastest and most controlled game in all of hockey. 

As a result, some skill players will actually not benefit from playing in the ECHL, at least in my view. The focus, perhaps, must be on the implementation of smart habits even in a more chaotic league. In other words, until the quality of the ECHL goes up, the focus must be on the process rather than the results. 

Seriously, the ECHL is wacky, a shocker considering that they are only a few steps away from the NHL. Both the on-ice and off-ice operations look a lot different and the Newfoundland Growlers benefitted from a heavy amount of support from their NHL affiliate, a privilege teams generally do not get.

This is a topic that I hope to explore more in the future, but I figured I’d leave that there for more context on why skilled players find it hard to make the jump and why the defensive players translate a little better.

Closing Thoughts

Despite the Newfoundland Growlers’ unfortunate and sudden demise, I think we can point to them as a very successful player development program that can be used as an example for years to come.

Unfortunately, there is a large gap in my knowledge when it comes to what exactly the Leafs did differently compared to other organizations. What I do know is that the Leafs invested significantly more time and resources in their ECHL program than any other NHL team ever has. As a result, they were able to reap rewards in their AHL and NHL teams, whether it was from a full-time player in Bobby McMann, or through cheap depth in Kristians Rubins and Mac Hollowell. 

I even acknowledge that the program wasn’t flawless and that it is possible that a lack of patience with someone like Justin Brazeau potentially limited the amount of value they were able to extract from him.

From all the data and information we have gone over, I do think that the NHL isn’t far from experimenting with a more interactive 3-Tier System rather than treating the ECHL as an afterthought. I believe that in years to come, more teams will consider the “Growler Model,” or at least a variation of baseball’s “AA” model, in order to add as much value as possible to their NHL club.

I plan on analyzing this system through different lenses as I increase my knowledge of the game and player development. I acknowledge that I do not have nearly as much experience as these teams and that my philosophy and methodology are subject to change in the future.

I wonder if there is some sort of framework that the Maple Leafs followed when it came to analyzing the progression of these prospects, or if it isn’t that structured. It doesn’t have to be structured. Hockey is a very random game with random results and players are independent agents with the ability to make their own decisions, on and off the ice. Sometimes you do have to play it by eye. However, it is my belief that some sort of developmental framework/plan would alleviate the issues that this program had in terms of overflow and uncertain progression.

If you’ve got all the way down here, huge props to you. I hope you enjoyed this extra-long analysis, as I hope to continue to deliver niche content on player development and scouting in the future.